Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
